South African motorists could face another major fuel-price increase in October, with early calculations pointing to increases of more than R2 a litre for petrol and up to R2.05 a litre for diesel.
The latest figures from the Central Energy Fund indicate a possible increase of about R2.02 per litre for 93 Unleaded petrol and R2.14 per litre for 95 Unleaded petrol. Diesel could rise by between R1.71 and R2.05 per litre, depending on the grade.
However, these are not yet the final October prices. The outlook can still change as international oil prices, the rand exchange rate and other fuel-price factors move before the official adjustment is announced.
Gauteng could see record prices
If the current calculations materialise, the price of 95 Unleaded petrol could reach approximately R29.06 a litre in Gauteng, while the coastal price could reach around R28.19.
Gauteng’s wholesale price for 50ppm diesel could climb to approximately R31.60 a litre, exceeding the previous record of R31.38 recorded in May.
The potential October increase follows a sharp September adjustment, when petrol prices increased by R1.34 a litre, while diesel rose by between R2.94 and R3.15 a litre.
Motorists face a bigger monthly fuel bill
The impact could be significant for households and people who rely heavily on their vehicles.
For example, a 40-litre petrol tank would cost roughly R81 more from the projected October increase alone. When combined with September’s increase, the additional cost compared with before the September adjustment would be about R139.
For a 60-litre tank, the combined September and projected October increases could add approximately R209 to the cost of filling up.
Diesel motorists face an even greater increase. The combined September and projected October increase for 50ppm diesel would amount to about R5.20 a litre. That translates to roughly R208 more for a 40-litre tank and R364 more for a 70-litre tank.
Transport costs could also rise
The consequences could extend beyond motorists.
Minibus-taxi operators have already introduced fare increases on some routes as higher fuel and operating costs put pressure on their businesses. Some city routes have seen increases of around R3 to R6, while certain long-distance routes have experienced increases of R10 to R30.
Further fuel increases could put additional pressure on public transport fares.
Road-freight companies are also vulnerable because diesel represents roughly 35% to 55% of their operating costs, depending on the operation. Higher diesel prices could therefore increase the cost of transporting goods around the country.
What happens next?
The October figures remain provisional. International oil prices will be closely watched, particularly after Brent Crude recently traded near $110 a barrel.
If oil prices remain elevated or increase further, South African motorists could face an even larger adjustment when the final October fuel prices are calculated.
For consumers, the potential increase could mean higher commuting costs and more expensive transportation of goods, adding further pressure to household budgets and businesses.